Duncan Watts wrote a terrific introduction to social network analysis (SNA) in 2003 called “Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age”. In the book, Watts describes the mathematical origins of SNA and the role of “small world networks” in epidemics, cascades, and innovation.
Epidemic modeling can be used to model not only the outbreak of diseases like SARS, but also the diffusion of an innovation. One interesting point that Watts raises is that “on a small-world network, the key to explosive growth of a disease is the shortcuts.” This leads me to ask what shortcuts exist between an innovator and a market. Is there a way to make the diffusion of an innovation more efficient?
We know from Everett Rogers that the diffusion of an innovation relies on its ability to flow from innovators to the early majority, and we know from Clayton Christensen that the leap between the early adopter and early majority groups is the most challenging period in this process. I aim to look at the people and organizations involved in that process to understand their characteristics and behavior. I believe we can identify actors that benefit the process and actors that lag or harm the process, and then identify the characteristics and behavior that produce a more rapid and/or impactful result in moving an innovation from the innovator to the market.
For example, in describing the impact of random rewirings on variously sized networks, Watts states that “the first five random rewirings reduce the average path length of the network by one-half, regardless of the size of the network.” This implies that the first five connectors in a network matter most in the connection between networks or nodes. This effect is amplified when those initial connectors are established (i.e. trustworthy) or well-connected individuals, in other words well-known in their field. In fact, as Watts describes, well-connected nodes have the luxury of attracting new links while poorly connected nodes remain poor. This is known as the Matthew Effect. So we might conclude that the connectivity (wealth of connections) of the initial five connectors determines the ego’s (or central node’s) fate. If you set up your network among loners, your network will stagnate; among the gregarious, your network will thrive.
